A LIMITED TRADE DEAL: Apparently, the U.S. and China have agreed to a “first-stage” trade deal. China will agree to buy more products from the U.S., and in particular agricultural products ($40 billion per year). The U.S. will not impose certain threatened tariffs, and reduce some existing ones. Tariffs on smartphones, toys and consumer electronics,…
DetailsSTRONG JOBS REPORT REVIVES THE MARKETS: After a very solid U.S. jobs report (see below), markets jumped on Friday, turning a negative week into a positive one. Up until Friday our old friend, U.S./China trade relations, reared its ugly head and sent markets sideways to negative for most of the week. The jobs report provided…
DetailsNOVEMBER WAS A STRONG MONTH FOR THE U.S. MARKETS: The shortened trading week ended as another positive week and capping off a month with a 3% gain (approximately). This time of year, a key driver is consumer behavior. Are they shopping? Although it is too soon to know for sure, solid data on household spending…
DetailsLONG BULL MARKET CONTINUES: The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 28,000 for the first time ever on Friday and U.S. stocks in general enjoyed another solid week. Optimism was fueled by: The White House indicating progress toward a deal with China, Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman noting strength in the economy, Positive third quarter corporate…
DetailsINVESTORS ARE CONFIDENT: Towards the end of July, investors were frightened by a drumbeat of data suggesting a global slowdown. U.S. stock prices fell and then bobbed around in a tight range. Since then, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, U.S. consumer spending and jobs data has come in strong, and corporate profits have…
DetailsNOW IT IS ABOUT THE EARNINGS: There have been times this year when I feel like I can just cut and paste my comments from the past week about what moved the markets. Generally, it has been the Fed and U.S./China. Although the Fed played a role last week, the markets were primarily moved by…
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October 14, 2019 Dear Clients and Friends: 3rd Quarter Market Commentary: The 3rd quarter presented investors with a continuation of themes that have been permeating capital markets, namely U.S. large cap leadership within the equity market, declining U.S. interest rates and sporadic market volatility caused by a myriad of geopolitical issues. Below is…
DetailsCONSUMER SENTIMENT REBOUNDS: The U.S. economy is substantially driven by consumer spending, and so an important indicator for the health of the economy is consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan maintains a carefully watched consumer sentiment index. This index had been decreasing for three straight months. In October, it rebounded. The October results reflected easing…
DetailsCONSUMERS SLOWED SPENDING IN AUGUST: Consumers slowed their rate of spending in August. The rate of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, increased by 0.1% in August. During the first seven months of 2019, the average increase in spending was 0.5% per month. Until August, U.S. consumer spending…
Details“CASH UNTIL THE CRASH”: This is the phrase I use to describe a growing group of people I have been noticing. Believing stock prices are too high, they are putting a lot of money in cash. When the crash happens, they will “get back into the market”. I have seen this being deployed by people…
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