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Gifts That Last

By Josh Manifold | Principal | Advisor

Every year in the advertising gauntlet leading up to Christmas, I find myself asking the question when seeing ads: “What are they really selling?” Now, there will be plenty of traditional presents under our tree on Christmas morning–I have nothing against them.

But I do wonder how many of these gifts will be used a month from now? Moreover, how many will be remembered a year from now?

It’s one of the reasons I find myself leaning further into creative gifts that move away from clutter and towards experiences. Here’s a list of a few ideas I’ve come across this holiday season:

  • Events (concerts, sports, 5k’s, museum trips…)
  • Travel (sponsor a study abroad, weekends with grandkids, camping gear…)
  • Learning (art classes, STEM club, music lessons…)
  • Access (local athletic club, state/national parks, lift tickets…)

These are just a few, but the other thing I love about them is that they often emphasize things that can be done together. Whether it’s your kids or if you are thinking about your grandkids, all of these can help reinforce shared experiences and family time.

Will Santa Visit this December?: It was quite a week! The S&P 500 sold off nearly 3% on Wednesday, with 97% of all stocks in the S&P 1500 falling as well. This is what we call a selling cascade. Keeping things in context, the S&P 500 is only 3.6% away from its recent highs, and it is still up 23% for the year. The Fed, on Wednesday, upped their views of economic growth, saying that things looked pretty good on the economic front.

There is a phenomenon called the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) in December. Discovered in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, it is the final five trading days of a year and the first two trading days of the following year. Historically, these trading days tend to be quite jolly, with many seasonal gains:

While these days tend to be in the green, Santa didn’t come last year, and (clearly) stocks did fine in 2024. In Hirsch’s words, the bottom line is, “If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

365 Days: Obviously, we have 365 days per year. As we approach New Year’s, how will you spend them in 2025? Consider this data on our Gen Z friends:

You can do the math: 109 days on screen + 106 days asleep = 215. That leaves just 150 days of actual activity. It’s actually very hard to comprehend. Consider it in contrast with this data on time spent with friends:

According to the survey, research shows our bodies don’t handle this kind of isolation well—loneliness has a neurochemical impact similar to hunger in that it impacts the same part of the brain. The longer we go without social interaction, the more we crave it. It’s good to remember this, especially this week when we may have more people interaction. As a practical matter, there has been an influx of what are called ‘dumb phones’ in the marketplace. Here’s one we found that might just be the ticket to practical change for those of us on our phones too much. It even gives directions and can play music, don’t worry!

 

 

 

 

 

 

*The views expressed represent the opinions of Compass Ion Advisors, LLC, as of the date noted and are subject to change. These views are not intended as a forecast, a guarantee of future results, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. The information provided is of a general nature and should not be construed as investment advice or to provide any investment, tax, financial, or legal advice or service to any person. The information contained has been compiled from sources deemed reliable, yet accuracy is not guaranteed.

Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2 available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.