Moving Advice | Home Sales Drop and Old Music Rising

• Moving: If you’re planning a move, particularly to a new state, it’s important to be aware of the possibility of moving fraud. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration offers tips about protecting your belongings before putting them on a moving truck. Those committing fraud will give you a low estimate over the phone without seeing what you own, demand more money before they deliver or unload, and sometimes even hold your goods hostage. They address what to watch for as you move and how to complete it successfully. Their practical tips may save you or someone you love a lot of trouble. Read the full article here.
• Withdrawals: Those of retirement age are regularly faced with whether to make yearly or quarterly withdrawals. There is much to be discussed with different strategies, but if you keep the variables the same, you will see that quarterly withdrawals beat the beginning of the year withdrawals anywhere from 62-100 percent of the time. Please call us if this is a strategy you don’t currently use and would like to consider. Read the full article here.

• Recession vs. Earnings: History shows that it takes quite a bit to knock earnings meaningfully off track. In mild recessions, earnings recover within a year or two (see chart below). In a typical recession, a 10-15% decline in earnings is a reasonable expectation. But our current economic forecast still calls for no recession this year and a 50% chance next year. A soft landing is difficult for the Federal Reserve to achieve, but it’s possible. And a recession could be mild, resulting in a smaller hit to earnings. Read the full article here.

Business Briefing:

• Ukraine Grain Exports: On Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office reported that Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and United Nations Secretary Antonio Guterres signed a deal to resume Ukraine grain exports. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, but the war between the two nations has stalled shipments, leaving 20 million tons of grain stuck at the port of Odesa. This disruption has contributed to higher prices and the triggering of a global food crisis. (Reuters)
• Tech Stocks: On Thursday, Snap reported revenue for Snapchat (a popular photo-sharing social media app) at $1.1 billion in the second quarter, falling just short of Wall Street’s already reduced expectations. It also had a net loss of $422 million for the quarter. U.S. stocks struggled early Friday as Snap’s disappointing quarterly report weighed on tech stocks. (The Wall Street Journal, CNBC)
• Home Sales Drop: Sales of previously owned homes dropped 5.4 percent in June (compared to May), the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. The decline came as home prices hit record highs and mortgage rates jumped, putting houses out of reach for an increasing number of buyers. We find this a mildly encouraging data point, all things considered. (CNBC)

Music Choices: Among the industries struggling, it seems entertainment shouldn’t even be on the list. And yet, in this cultural and economic moment, it is indeed. The music industry is approaching stagnation which seems impossible given the amount of capital poured into it each year. The latest numbers come from a company called Luminate which tells us that the share of new music continues to shrink in the face of competition from old songs. The latest numbers show consumption of old music grew another 14 percent during the first half of 2022, while demand for new music declined an additional 1.4 percent. These old tunes represent 72 percent of the market. I’ll confess to being part of that 14% bump through my recent re-discovering of Leonard Cohen. What’s playing in your kitchen these days?